Enflasyon ve Büyüme Aras?ndaki Do?rusal Olmayan ?li?ki: Geçi? Ekonomileri Örne?i

Özet

Bu çal??mada enflasyon ve iktisadi büyüme aras?ndaki do?rusal olmayan ili?ki seçilmi? geçi? ülkelerinin 1998-2019 y?llar?na ait verilerini kullanarak incelenmi?tir. Ampirik analizde panel e?ik regresyon modeli uygulanm??t?r. Çal??man?n bulgular? enflasyonun iktisadi büyüme üzerinde e?ik etkisinin bulundu?unu göstermektedir. Ayr?ca, nüfus art???, i?çi dövizleri ve yurt içi yat?r?mlar?n iktisadi büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel aç?dan anlaml? etkisinin bulundu?u ortaya konulmu?tur. Bu çal??madan elde edilen bulgular, söz konusu ülkelerin politika yap?c?lar? için faydal? olabilir. E?i?in üzerindeki enflasyon büyümeyi olumsuz etkiledi?inden, söz konusu ülkelerdeki merkez bankalar?, enflasyon oran?n? tahmini e?ik de?erine indirerek ekonomik büyümenin artmas?na katk? sa?layabilirler.

Anahtar kelimeler: Enflasyon, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel e?ik regresyon modeli

Non-Linear Relationship Between Inflation and Growth: The Case of Transition Economies

Abstract

This study examines the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth using a Panel Threshold Regression on a dataset over the period 1998-2019 for selected transition economies. The findings of the study show that there exists a threshold effect of inflation on economic growth. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the population growth, workers’ remittances, and domestic investments are statistically significant in explaining economic growth. Findings obtained from this study can be useful for policymakers of the countries under consideration. Since inflation above the threshold negatively affects growth, central banks in the countries considered may contribute to an increase in economic growth by reducing the inflation rate to the estimated threshold value.

Keywords: Infliation, Economic growth, Panel treshold regression model

Prof. Dr. Ebru Ça?layan Akay (Marmara University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-9998-5334  ecaglayan@marmara.edu.tr

Asst. Prof. Dr. Zamira Oskonbaeva (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan)
0000-0002-3711-6918  zamira.oskonbaeva@manas.edu.kg

Submitted on: 2021-10-06 Accepted on: 2022-01-14

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:1 Pages: 25-33

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.1.0104

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APA style citation: Ça?layan Akay, E. , & Oskonbaeva, Z. (2022). Enflasyon ve Büyüme Aras?ndaki Do?rusal Olmayan ?li?ki: Geçi? Ekonomileri Örne?i. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 1(1), 25-33.

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