Enflasyon Belirsizli?i ve Friedman-Ball Hipotezi: Türkiye Örne?i

Özet

Friedman-Ball Hipotezi, enflasyonun, enflasyon belirsizli?ini de artt?rmak suretiyle görünmeyen ilave maliyetlerine dikkat çekmektedir. Hipotez, enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizli?i aras?nda pozitif bir ili?ki oldu?unu ve enflasyonun yükseldi?i dönemlerde asimetrik bilgi sorunu nedeni ile enflasyon belirsizli?ini de artt?rd???n? savunmaktad?r. Literatürde, enflasyon ve enflasyon belirsizli?i aras?ndaki ili?kiye yönelik tart??malar Okun (1971), Gordon (1971) ile ba?lam?? ve Friedman (1977), Ball (1992) ile sürmü?tür. Günümüzde konuya olan ilgi önemli ölçüde azalm??t?r; bunun nedeni enflasyon oranlar?n?n ço?u ülkede ?l?ml? seviyelerde seyretmekte, hatta az say?da ülkede negatife dahi (deflasyon) geçmi? oldu?udur. Aralar?nda Türkiye’nin de oldu?u baz? ülkelerde ise, enflasyon sorunu ve neden oldu?u maliyetler gündemde kalmaya devam etmektedir. Nitekim, Türkiye ekonomisi için Friedman-Ball hipotezinin geçerli olup olmad??? ile ilgili önemli bir literatür mevcuttur. Türkiye’de enflasyonun neden oldu?u enflasyon belirsizli?ini inceleyen önemli çal??malar aras?nda Neyapt? ve Kaya (2001), Berüment vd. (2003) ba?ta gelmektedir. Türkiye ekonomisinde yüksek enflasyonun yine enflasyon üzerinde yaratt??? belirsizlik ile yat?r?m ve üretim gibi di?er baz? makroekonomik de?i?kenler üzerinde olumsuz etkilerine dikkat çeken ve ekonominin uzun dönem büyüme performans?n?n gerisinde kalmas?na da neden olabildi?ini gösteren bu çal??malar?n güncellenmesi aray???, çal??mam?z?n ç?k?? gerekçesidir. Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde 1985:01 – 2020:12 dönem verilerinin kullan?ld??? çal??mam?z, Friedman-Ball hipotezinin geçerlili?i s?namaktad?r. Analiz sürecinde TGARCH ve EGARCH modelinden yararlan?lm?? olup, elde edilen bulgular Friedman-Ball hipotezini do?rulayacak ?ekilde, Türkiye’de yüksek enflasyonun, enflasyon belirsizli?ini hem k?sa hem de uzun dönemde artt?rd???n? teyit etmektedir. Bulgular?m?z, enflasyonla mücadelenin önemine ve konunun, görünmeyen ilave maliyetleri nedeniyle, sadece enflasyon sorunu olmayabilece?ine de dikkat çekmektedir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Enflasyon belirsizli?i, Friedman-Ball hipotezi, TGARCH ve EGARCH modelleri

Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

Friedman-Ball's hypothesis draws attention to the invisible additional costs of inflation, which results from increasing inflation uncertainty. The hypothesis argues that there is a positive relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, and that increasing inflation brings along more inflation uncertainty due to an asymmetric information problem. In the literature, discussions about the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty started with Okun (1971), Gordon (1971), and continued with Friedman (1977), Ball (1992). At the present, interest in this issue has decreased significantly, due to the fact that inflation rates are at moderate levels in most countries and are even negative (deflation) in a small number of countries. In some countries including Turkey, however, the inflation problem and its resulting costs remain as current and active topics. Indeed, there exist significant literature about whether or not the Friedman-Ball hypothesis is valid for the Turkish economy. Some of the most important studies about the inflation and the resulting uncertainty in Turkey are done by Neyapt? and Kaya (2001), Berüment, et al. (2003). The motivation and the purpose of this study is updating the research on the high inflation and inflation uncertainty, the resulting costs with respect to macroeconomic variables such as investments and production, which may hinder the long-run economic growth performance in Turkey. This study examines new evidence about the validity of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis for the Turkish economy utilizing data over the period of 1985:01 – 2020:12. The results of the TGARCH and EGARCH models verify the validity of the Friedman-Ball hypothesis for Turkey and indicate that high inflation increases inflation uncertainty both in the short- and long-run. Overall, the analyses point out to the importance of striving against inflation because the problem may be more than just high inflation due to its aforementioned invisible additional costs.

Keywords: Inflation uncertainity, Friedman-Ball hypothesis, TGARCH and EGARCH models

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Esma Erdo?an (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-7324-8512  esma01erdogan@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Ayat Abdelrahim Suliman Esaa (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-8521-0896  ayot1992@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2021-10-21 Accepted on: 2022-01-12

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:1 Pages: 1-15

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.1.0102

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APA style citation: Bal, H. , Erdo?an, E. , & Esaa, A. A. S. (2022). Enflasyon Belirsizli?i ve Friedman-Ball Hipotezi: Türkiye Örne?i. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 1(1), 1-15.

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