Assessing the Trade Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on Australian Exports: A Synthetic Control Approach

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of two trade agreements, the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), on Australia’s export performance using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The results show that the CPTPP has enhanced Australia’s exports performance, resulting in an average increase of 18% in exports since its implementation in December 2018. This positive increase continued during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the agreement’s role in stabilizing trade flows and mitigating global economic disruptions. In contrast, RCEP, which entered into force in January 2022, has shown a more modest and short-lived effect, with an average export increase of 4% that declined over time. This difference is attributed to CPTPP’s more powerful trade liberalization provisions and the overlap of RCEP membership with pre-existing bilateral agreements. This paper contributes to the literature by using the SCM to assess the impacts of these mega-regional trade agreements on Australian exports. Future studies should investigate sector-specific effects and extend the analysis to other member countries to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the broader implications of these agreements.

Trans-Pasifik Ortaklığı Kapsamlı ve İlerici Anlaşması ile Bölgesel Kapsamlı Ekonomik Ortaklığın Avustralya İhracatına Olan Ticari Etkilerinin Değerlendirilmesi: Sentetik Kontrol Yaklaşımı

Özet

Bu çalışma, Sentetik Kontrol Yöntemi (SCM) kullanılarak, Trans-Pasifik Kapsamlı ve İlerici Ortaklık Anlaşması (CPTPP) ile Bölgesel Kapsamlı Ekonomik Ortaklık (RCEP) adlı iki ticaret anlaşmasının Avustralya’nın ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Sonuçlar, CPTPP’nin Avustralya’nın ihracat performansını artırdığını ve Aralık 2018’deki yürürlüğe girmesinden bu yana ihracatta ortalama %18’lik bir artışa yol açtığını göstermektedir. Bu olumlu artış, COVID-19 pandemisi sırasında da devam etmiş ve anlaşmanın ticaret akışlarını istikrara kavuşturma ve küresel ekonomik aksaklıkları hafifletmedeki rolünü vurgulamıştır. Buna karşılık, Ocak 2022’de yürürlüğe giren RCEP, zamanla azalan ortalama %4’lük bir ihracat artışıyla daha mütevazı ve kısa süreli bir etki göstermiştir. Bu fark, CPTPP’nin daha güçlü ticaret serbestleştirme hükümlerine ve RCEP üyeliğinin önceden var olan ikili anlaşmalarla çakışmasına atfedilebilir. Bu makale, SCM’yi kullanarak bu mega-bölgesel ticaret anlaşmalarının Avustralya ihracatı üzerindeki etkilerini değerlendirmek suretiyle literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Gelecekteki çalışmalar, bu anlaşmaların daha geniş kapsamlı etkilerini daha kapsamlı bir şekilde anlamak için sektöre özgü etkileri araştırmalı ve analizi diğer üye ülkelere de genişletmelidir.

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Selahattin Sarı (Eurasian Economists Association, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0003-3218-2753  1950ssari@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Esma Erdoğan (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-7324-8512  esma01erdogan@gmail.com

Mr. Yasser Al Hasbi (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0009-0000-3581-1960  alhasbiyasser@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2025-08-01 Accepted on: 2025-11-10

Year:2026 - Volume:5 Issue:2 Pages: 1-10

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J05.2.0150

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APA style citation: Bal, H. , Sarı, S. , Erdoğan, E. , & Al Hasbi, Y. (2026). Assessing the Trade Impact of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on Australian Exports: A Synthetic Control Approach. Journal of Eurasian Economies, 5(2), 1-10.

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