Sermaye Kaçışı ve Belirleyici Dinamikleri: Rusya Federasyonu Örneği

Özet

Bu çalışma, sermaye kaçışının en yaygın olduğu ülkelerden biri olan Rusya Federasyonu'ndaki belirleyici faktörlerin dinamiklerini analiz etmektedir. Analiz, 1992:2022 (t = 31) dönemi için FMOLS (modifiye edilmiş en küçük kareler yöntemi), DOLS (dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi) ve CCR (dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi) kullanmaktadır. Ekonometrik yaklaşımın teorik temellerine dayanan analiz, enflasyon, küresel petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatları, siyasi istikrar endeksi, dış borç, vergiler ve hukukun üstünlüğündeki gelişmeleri sermaye kaçışının belirleyicileri olarak ele almaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, her bir tahmin yöntemi (FMOLS, DOLS ve CCR) için seçilen değişkenlerin sermaye kaçışını etkilediğini ve teorik çerçeveyle uyumlu olduğunu göstermektedir. Ancak, ampirik bulgular, doğal gaz fiyatları ve siyasi istikrarın sermaye kaçışını etkilemede diğer değişkenlere göre daha yüksek bir öneme sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, hukukun üstünlüğünün sermaye kaçışına etkisi diğer değişkenlerin etkisinden daha önemlidir. Bu bulgulara dayanarak, Rus ekonomisinde sermaye kaçışını önlemek için politika uygulamalarında seçilen değişkenleri dikkatle izlemek önemlidir. Ancak, doğal gaz fiyatları, siyasi istikrar ve hukukun üstünlüğü diğer değişkenlerden daha önemli oldukları için ihmal edilmemelidir. Bu çalışmanın ampirik literatüre yeni katkısı, sermaye kaçışının belirleyicilerini teorik bir temelde ortaya koyması ve bunların önem sırasını belirlemesidir.

Capital Flight and Determining Dynamics: The Case of Russian Federation

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of determinants in the Russian Federation, one of the countries where capital flight is most prevalent. The analysis uses the FMOLS (modified ordinary least squares method), DOLS (dynamic ordinary least squares method), and CCR (dynamic ordinary least squares method) for the period 1992:2022 (t = 31). Based on the theoretical foundations of the econometric approach, the analysis includes inflation, global oil and natural gas prices, the political stability index, external debt, taxes, and developments in the rule of law as determinants of capital flight. The empirical findings demonstrate that the selected variables for each estimation method (FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR) impact capital flight and align with the theoretical framework. However, the empirical findings indicate that natural gas prices and political stability have a higher level of significance in affecting capital flight than other variables. Additionally, the effect of the rule of law on capital flight is more significant than that of other variables. Based on these findings, it is important to carefully monitor the selected variables in policy implementations to prevent capital flight in the Russian economy. However, natural gas prices, political stability, and the rule of law should not be neglected as they are more important than other variables. This study's novel contribution to the empirical literature is that it reveals the determinants of capital flight on a theoretical basis and determines their order of importance.

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Ahmet Alkan Çelik (Doğuş University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-8712-8677  alkancelik@dogus.edu.tr

Ph.D. candidate Esma Erdoğan (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-7324-8512  esma01erdogan@gmail.com

Dr. Koray Yıldırım (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-2524-1746  korayyildirim80@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2025-08-01 Accepted on: 2025-11-22

Year:2026 - Volume:5 Issue:1 Pages: 12-20

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J05.1.0149

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APA style citation: Bal, H. , Çelik, A. A. , Erdoğan, E. , & Yıldırım, K. (2026). Sermaye Kaçışı ve Belirleyici Dinamikleri: Rusya Federasyonu Örneği. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 5(1), 12-20.

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