ABD Merkez Bankası'nın Para Politikası Kurallarından Sapmaları ve Bunların Yayılma Etkileri

Özet

Bu çalışmanın amacı, FED'in para politikası kurallarından sapmalarının Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Diğer bir deyişle, FED'in para politikasının yayılma etkisi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan veri seti Taylor (2012) referans alınarak kurala dayalı ve ihtiyari dönemler olarak ikiye ayrılmış ve değişkenler arasındaki etkileşim yapısal VAR modelleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, FED'in ihtiyari politikaya daha yakın olduğu dönemde para politikası kurallarından sapmaların Türkiye ekonomisi üzerinde oldukça önemli etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Türkiye gibi gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomilerinin FED'in para politikalarından gelişmiş ülkelere göre daha fazla etkilendiği düşünüldüğünde, şeffaf ve öngörülebilir para politikalarının bu küresel etkilerden korunmak için etkili bir araç olduğu söylenebilir. Ayrıca dış ticaret portföyünün çeşitlendirilmesi ve döviz rezervlerinin güçlendirilmesi de Türkiye ekonomisinin FED'in para politikalarından kaynaklanan şoklara karşı dirençli hale gelmesinde son derece önemlidir.

Federal Reserve Bank’s Deviations from Monetary Policy Rules and their Spillover Effects

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the FED's deviations from monetary policy rules on the Turkish economy. In other words, the spillover effect of the FED's monetary policy was examined. The dataset used in the study was divided into two parts as rule-based and discretionary periods with reference to Taylor (2012), and the interaction between the variables was examined using structural VAR models. The results show that deviations from monetary policy rules have quite significant effects on the Turkish economy in the period when the FED is closer to discretionary policy. Considering that the economies of developing countries such as Turkey are more affected by the monetary policies of the FED than the developed countries, it can be said that transparent and predictable monetary policies are an effective tool to be protected from these global effects. In addition, the diversification of the foreign trade portfolio and the strengthening of foreign exchange reserves are also extremely important in making the Turkish economy resilient to the shocks resulting from the FED's monetary policies.

Mr. Onur Şeker (Istanbul Beykent University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0003-1940-7452  seker.s.onur@gmail.com

Mr. Fatih Yılmaz (Istanbul Beykent University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-8514-2571  fatih.fy.yilmaz@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2023-10-01 Accepted on: 2024-07-16

Year:2024 - Volume:3 Issue:2 Pages: 28-35

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J03.2.0133

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APA style citation: Şeker, O. , & Yılmaz, F. (2024). ABD Merkez Bankası'nın Para Politikası Kurallarından Sapmaları ve Bunların Yayılma Etkileri. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 3(2), 28-35.

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