Kriz Dönemlerinde Sermaye Kaçışının Belirleyicileri: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar

Özet

Türkiye, birçok gelişmekte olan ülke arasında ekonomik tarihinde hem küresel hem de içsel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan bir dizi sermaye kaçışına maruz kalmıştır. Çalışmamız, 2000'lerden bu yana farklı faktörlere bağlı olarak ortaya çıkan sermaye kaçışının Makroekonomik belirleyicilerini Türkiye ekonomisi için VAR yöntemi ile incelemeye çalışmaktadır. Analiz dönemi 2000q1-2020q4 dönemini kapsamakla birlikte, sermaye kaçışının ana makroekonomik belirleyicileri çeşitli alt dönemleri de dikkate alarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın ilgili literatürden farklılaştığı nokta, finansal stres dönemlerini gösteren alt dönemleri dikkate alarak sermaye kaçışının makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemesidir. Sonuçlar, sermaye kaçışı ile dış borç arasında genel bir pozitif ilişki olduğunu, ancak sermaye kaçışı ile cari açık ve Türk lirasının değer kaybı arasında olumsuz bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, sermaye kaçışı ile enflasyon oranı arasında pozitif bir ilişki olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Ampirik sonuçlar, sermaye kaçışının belirleyici faktörlerinin etkisinin üç incelenen dönem arasında önemli ölçüde değiştiğini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin sermaye kaçışıyla mücadele sürecine ilişkin politika tasarımlarını ve ana konularını belirlemede önemlidir. Finansal istikrarın sağlanması, yatırımcı güveninin oluşturulması, dış borçlanma dinamiklerinin yakından izlenmesi ve enflasyona karşı mücadeleyi önceleyen politikaların uygulanması, bu sürecin ayrılmaz parçalarıdır. Bu aynı zamanda makroekonomik istikrarın temel unsurları arasında yer aldıkları için bu konuda atılacak her adım büyük öneme sahiptir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Sermaye kaçışları, Vektör oto-regresyon, Etki tepki fonksiyonu

The Determinants of Capital Flight During Crisis Periods: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Turkey, among a number of developing countries, has been exposed to capital flight in many periods of its economic history due to both global and domestic dynamics. Our study attempts to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of capital flight, which has occurred since the 2000s and whose emergence depends on different factors, with the VAR method for the Turkish economy. Although the analysis period is for the quarter period 2000q1-2020q4, the key macroeconomic determinants of capital flight are investigated by considering various sub-periods. The macroeconomic determinants of capital flight are investigated by taking into account the sub-periods indicating financial stress periods, which is the differentiating aspect of the study from the related literature. The outcomes indicate that there is a positive association between capital flight and external debt for the whole period, but an adverse relationship between capital flight and current account deficit and depreciation of the Turkish lira. Also, a positive association was indicated between capital flight and inflation rate. The empirical results show that there is ‎variation in the significant effect of the determining factors of the capital flight among the three examined periods. These results are important for determining the policy designs and key issues regarding Turkey's process of combating capital flight. Ensuring financial stability, building investor confidence, closely monitoring external borrowing dynamics, and implementing policies that prioritize the fight against inflation are integral parts of this process. Since they are also among the fundamental elements of macroeconomic stability, every step to be taken in this regard is of great importance.

Keywords: Capital flight, Vector autoregression, Impulse response function

Ph.D. candidate Berk Palandökenlier (Gaziantep University, Gaziantep, Türkiye)
0000-0001-9010-7685  berkplndkn@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Ayat Abdelrahim Suliman Esaa (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-8521-0896  ayot1992@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2023-10-01 Accepted on: 2024-01-18

Year:2024 - Volume:3 Issue:1 Pages: 49-62

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J03.1.0128

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APA style citation: Palandökenlier, B. , Esaa, A. A. S. , & Bal, H. (2024). Kriz Dönemlerinde Sermaye Kaçışının Belirleyicileri: Türkiye'den Kanıtlar. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 3(1), 49-62.

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