Kriz Dönemlerinde Sermaye Kaç???n?n Belirleyicileri: Türkiye'den Kan?tlar

Özet

Türkiye, birçok geli?mekte olan ülke aras?nda ekonomik tarihinde hem küresel hem de içsel dinamiklerden kaynaklanan bir dizi sermaye kaç???na maruz kalm??t?r. Çal??mam?z, 2000'lerden bu yana farkl? faktörlere ba?l? olarak ortaya ç?kan sermaye kaç???n?n Makroekonomik belirleyicilerini Türkiye ekonomisi için VAR yöntemi ile incelemeye çal??maktad?r. Analiz dönemi 2000q1-2020q4 dönemini kapsamakla birlikte, sermaye kaç???n?n ana makroekonomik belirleyicileri çe?itli alt dönemleri de dikkate alarak incelenmi?tir. Çal??man?n ilgili literatürden farkl?la?t??? nokta, finansal stres dönemlerini gösteren alt dönemleri dikkate alarak sermaye kaç???n?n makroekonomik belirleyicilerini incelemesidir. Sonuçlar, sermaye kaç??? ile d?? borç aras?nda genel bir pozitif ili?ki oldu?unu, ancak sermaye kaç??? ile cari aç?k ve Türk liras?n?n de?er kayb? aras?nda olumsuz bir ili?ki oldu?unu göstermektedir. Ayr?ca, sermaye kaç??? ile enflasyon oran? aras?nda pozitif bir ili?ki oldu?u tespit edilmi?tir. Ampirik sonuçlar, sermaye kaç???n?n belirleyici faktörlerinin etkisinin üç incelenen dönem aras?nda önemli ölçüde de?i?ti?ini göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye'nin sermaye kaç???yla mücadele sürecine ili?kin politika tasar?mlar?n? ve ana konular?n? belirlemede önemlidir. Finansal istikrar?n sa?lanmas?, yat?r?mc? güveninin olu?turulmas?, d?? borçlanma dinamiklerinin yak?ndan izlenmesi ve enflasyona kar?? mücadeleyi önceleyen politikalar?n uygulanmas?, bu sürecin ayr?lmaz parçalar?d?r. Bu ayn? zamanda makroekonomik istikrar?n temel unsurlar? aras?nda yer ald?klar? için bu konuda at?lacak her ad?m büyük öneme sahiptir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Sermaye kaç??lar?, Vektör oto-regresyon, Etki tepki fonksiyonu

The Determinants of Capital Flight During Crisis Periods: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Turkey, among a number of developing countries, has been exposed to capital flight in many periods of its economic history due to both global and domestic dynamics. Our study attempts to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of capital flight, which has occurred since the 2000s and whose emergence depends on different factors, with the VAR method for the Turkish economy. Although the analysis period is for the quarter period 2000q1-2020q4, the key macroeconomic determinants of capital flight are investigated by considering various sub-periods. The macroeconomic determinants of capital flight are investigated by taking into account the sub-periods indicating financial stress periods, which is the differentiating aspect of the study from the related literature. The outcomes indicate that there is a positive association between capital flight and external debt for the whole period, but an adverse relationship between capital flight and current account deficit and depreciation of the Turkish lira. Also, a positive association was indicated between capital flight and inflation rate. The empirical results show that there is ?variation in the significant effect of the determining factors of the capital flight among the three examined periods. These results are important for determining the policy designs and key issues regarding Turkey's process of combating capital flight. Ensuring financial stability, building investor confidence, closely monitoring external borrowing dynamics, and implementing policies that prioritize the fight against inflation are integral parts of this process. Since they are also among the fundamental elements of macroeconomic stability, every step to be taken in this regard is of great importance.

Keywords: Capital flight, Vector autoregression, Impulse response function

Ph.D. candidate Berk Palandökenlier (Gaziantep University, Gaziantep, Türkiye)
0000-0001-9010-7685  berkplndkn@gmail.com

Ph.D. candidate Ayat Abdelrahim Suliman Esaa (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0002-8521-0896  ayot1992@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Harun Bal (Çukurova University, Adana, Türkiye)
0000-0003-0878-8253  balharun@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2023-10-01 Accepted on: 2024-01-18

Year:2024 - Volume:3 Issue:1 Pages: 49-62

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J03.1.0128

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APA style citation: Palandökenlier, B. , Esaa, A. A. S. , & Bal, H. (2024). Kriz Dönemlerinde Sermaye Kaç???n?n Belirleyicileri: Türkiye'den Kan?tlar. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 3(1), 49-62.

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