Modern ?ktisat Okullar? Aç???ndan Makroekonomik Dengeye Ula?mada Beklentilerin Rolü

Özet

Yeni Klasikler "Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezi"ni geli?tirmi?lerdir. Bu hipoteze göre, tüm ekonomik aktörler rasyoneldirler, ve optimizasyon yapmaktad?rlar; ve hepsi ekonomik kararlar?nda tam bilgiye sahip olacaklar ve gelecekteki fiyatlar? do?ru tahmin edecekler, dolay?s?yla do?ru maksimizasyon kararlar? vereceklerdir. Friedman ve Monetaristler, i?çilerin enflasyon oldu?u zaman ilk dönemde fiyat ve ücret beklentilerinde hata yapacaklar?n? ve ücretlerini ayn? tutacaklar?n? varsayarak "Uyarlanabilir Beklentiler Hipotezi"ni ortaya atm??lard?r; bu hipoteze göre bir sonraki dönemde ise i?çiler fiyat art???n?n ve reel ücretlerindeki dü?ü?ün boyutunu tam olarak anlayacaklar ve buna ba?l? olarak ücretlerini de art?racaklard?r. Bu durumda, para politikas?n?n i?sizli?i do?al i?sizlik oran? noktas?n?n alt?na dü?ürmedeki etkisi sadece bir dönem sürecek; ekonomi do?al i?sizlik oran?na tekrar dönecek ve para arz?ndaki art?? sadece fiyatlar? ve ücretleri yükseltecek; gerçek parametrelerin de?eri ise bir dönem öncekiyle ayn? seyretmeye devam edecektir. Yeni Keynesgil iktisatç?lar da aslen Keynesgil varsay?mlara oldukça ayk?r? olan Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezini'ni kabul etmi?erdir, yani i?çiler aç?s?ndan gelecekteki fiyatlar?n sistematik olarak dü?ük tahmin edilmesinin yan? s?ra belirsizlik ve ergodik olmama durumu da söz konusu olacakt?r. Post-Keynesgil iktisatç?lar ise "Heterojen Beklentiler Hipotezi" varsay?m?n? kabul etmi?lerdir. Post-Keynesgil iktisatç?lara göre giri?imciler, tam bilgi edinme ve gelecekteki fiyatlar? do?ru tahmin etme konusunda i?çilerden daha avantajl? bir konumdad?rlar ve do?ru tahmin ederler. ??çiler daha bu konuda az bilgiye sahiptirler ve genellikle gelecekteki fiyatlar? oldu?undan daha dü?ük tahmin ederler.

Anahtar kelimeler: Makroekonomik okullar, Makroekonomik denge, Uyarlanm??, rasyonel ve heterojen beklentiler

The Role of Different Types of Expectations Reaching the Macroeconomic Equilibrium

Abstract

New Classicals have developed “Rational Expectations Hypothesis”. This means all economic agents are rational, optimizing and maximizing; they all have access to full information for the decisions they will take, and they will predict future prices correctly, hence make correct maximizing decisions. Friedman and Monetarists came up with “Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis” assuming that the workers, when there is an inflation will err in the first period and keep their wages the same; but in the next period they will realize the exact magnitude of the price rise and the fall in their real wage, hence will raise their wages correspondingly. Thus, the effects of monetary policy in reducing unemployment below natural rate of unemployment point will live only for one period; the economy will return to natural rate of unemployment and money supply increase will have only raised prices and wages; with the value of real parameters the same as one period ago. New Keynesians have also accepted Rational Expectations Hypothesis, which is obviously contrary to the Keynesian assumptions in this regard, namely, systematic under-estimation of future prices on the part of workers, as well as uncertainty and non-ergodicity. Post-Keynesians presented their assumptions in “Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis”. According to Post-Keynesians, entrepreneurs are in a better position than workers to obtain full information and estimate future prices correctly. The workers are less knowledgeable and generally end up under-estimating future prices.

Keywords: Macroeconomic schools, Macroeconomic equilibrium, Adaptive, rational and heterogeneous expectations

Prof. Dr. Özlen Hiç (Istanbul University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-2308-3393  ozlen.h.birol@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Ay?en Hiç Gencer (Istanbul Beykent University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0001-9556-9416  aysenhicgencer@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2022-11-01 Accepted on: 2022-12-22

Year:2023 - Volume:2 Issue:1 Pages: 1-10

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J02.1.0117

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APA style citation: Hiç, Öz. , & Gencer, A. H. (2023). Modern ?ktisat Okullar? Aç???ndan Makroekonomik Dengeye Ula?mada Beklentilerin Rolü. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 2(1), 1-10.

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