Modern İktisat Okulları Açışından Makroekonomik Dengeye Ulaşmada Beklentilerin Rolü

Özet

Yeni Klasikler "Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezi"ni geliştirmişlerdir. Bu hipoteze göre, tüm ekonomik aktörler rasyoneldirler, ve optimizasyon yapmaktadırlar; ve hepsi ekonomik kararlarında tam bilgiye sahip olacaklar ve gelecekteki fiyatları doğru tahmin edecekler, dolayısıyla doğru maksimizasyon kararları vereceklerdir. Friedman ve Monetaristler, işçilerin enflasyon olduğu zaman ilk dönemde fiyat ve ücret beklentilerinde hata yapacaklarını ve ücretlerini aynı tutacaklarını varsayarak "Uyarlanabilir Beklentiler Hipotezi"ni ortaya atmışlardır; bu hipoteze göre bir sonraki dönemde ise işçiler fiyat artışının ve reel ücretlerindeki düşüşün boyutunu tam olarak anlayacaklar ve buna bağlı olarak ücretlerini de artıracaklardır. Bu durumda, para politikasının işsizliği doğal işsizlik oranı noktasının altına düşürmedeki etkisi sadece bir dönem sürecek; ekonomi doğal işsizlik oranına tekrar dönecek ve para arzındaki artış sadece fiyatları ve ücretleri yükseltecek; gerçek parametrelerin değeri ise bir dönem öncekiyle aynı seyretmeye devam edecektir. Yeni Keynesgil iktisatçılar da aslen Keynesgil varsayımlara oldukça aykırı olan Rasyonel Beklentiler Hipotezini'ni kabul etmişerdir, yani işçiler açısından gelecekteki fiyatların sistematik olarak düşük tahmin edilmesinin yanı sıra belirsizlik ve ergodik olmama durumu da söz konusu olacaktır. Post-Keynesgil iktisatçılar ise "Heterojen Beklentiler Hipotezi" varsayımını kabul etmişlerdir. Post-Keynesgil iktisatçılara göre girişimciler, tam bilgi edinme ve gelecekteki fiyatları doğru tahmin etme konusunda işçilerden daha avantajlı bir konumdadırlar ve doğru tahmin ederler. İşçiler daha bu konuda az bilgiye sahiptirler ve genellikle gelecekteki fiyatları olduğundan daha düşük tahmin ederler.

Anahtar kelimeler: Makroekonomik okullar, Makroekonomik denge, Uyarlanmış, rasyonel ve heterojen beklentiler

The Role of Different Types of Expectations Reaching the Macroeconomic Equilibrium

Abstract

New Classicals have developed “Rational Expectations Hypothesis”. This means all economic agents are rational, optimizing and maximizing; they all have access to full information for the decisions they will take, and they will predict future prices correctly, hence make correct maximizing decisions. Friedman and Monetarists came up with “Adaptive Expectations Hypothesis” assuming that the workers, when there is an inflation will err in the first period and keep their wages the same; but in the next period they will realize the exact magnitude of the price rise and the fall in their real wage, hence will raise their wages correspondingly. Thus, the effects of monetary policy in reducing unemployment below natural rate of unemployment point will live only for one period; the economy will return to natural rate of unemployment and money supply increase will have only raised prices and wages; with the value of real parameters the same as one period ago. New Keynesians have also accepted Rational Expectations Hypothesis, which is obviously contrary to the Keynesian assumptions in this regard, namely, systematic under-estimation of future prices on the part of workers, as well as uncertainty and non-ergodicity. Post-Keynesians presented their assumptions in “Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis”. According to Post-Keynesians, entrepreneurs are in a better position than workers to obtain full information and estimate future prices correctly. The workers are less knowledgeable and generally end up under-estimating future prices.

Keywords: Macroeconomic schools, Macroeconomic equilibrium, Adaptive, rational and heterogeneous expectations

Prof. Dr. Özlen Hiç (Istanbul University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-2308-3393  ozlen.h.birol@gmail.com

Prof. Dr. Ayşen Hiç Gencer (Istanbul Beykent University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0001-9556-9416  aysenhicgencer@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2022-11-01 Accepted on: 2022-12-22

Year:2023 - Volume:2 Issue:1 Pages: 1-10

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J02.1.0117

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APA style citation: Hiç, Ö. , & Gencer, A. H. (2023). Modern İktisat Okulları Açışından Makroekonomik Dengeye Ulaşmada Beklentilerin Rolü. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 2(1), 1-10.

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