Yapt?r?mlar?n ve ?ktisadi Entegrasyonun Avrasya Ekonomik Birli?i Üyeleri Aras?ndaki Ticarete Etkisi: Çekim Modeli Testi

Özet

Üç ülke aras?nda 2010 y?l?nda olu?turulan gümrük birli?i 2015’de ekonomik birli?e dönü?erek üye say?s? be?e ç?km??t?r. ?ktisadi entegrasyonun temel amac? ülkeler aras?nda ticari ve ekonomik ili?kileri geli?tirmek ve büyük pazar?n çe?itli avantajlar?ndan yararlanmakt?r. Fakat Mart 2014’de Rusya’n?n K?r?m'? kendi içerisine almas?ndan sonra ABD ve di?er Bat? ülkeleri taraf?ndan Rusya’ya kar?? yapt?r?mlar ba?lad? ve bu halen devam etmektedir. Bu Rusya ile di?er ülkelerin aras?ndaki ticareti de etkilemektedir. Yapt?r?mlardan dolay? ekonominin ve toplam d?? ticaret hacminin daralmas?, Rusya rublesinin ve daha sonra di?er ülke paralar?n?n büyük oranda devalüasyona u?ramas? nedeniyle birli?in ticari ili?kilerinin negatif etkilendi?i söylenmektedir. Di?er taraftan, tam o dönemde olu?turulan entegrasyon sonucunda ülkelerin üçüncü ülkelerle olan d?? ticareti darald??? için birlik içi ülkelere yönelmeleri nedeniyle pozitif de etkilenmi? olabilece?i beklenmektedir. Bu çal??mada söz konusu hipotezleri test etmek için 2000-2019 dönemine ait y?ll?k veriler kullan?larak panel veri analizi yap?lm??t?r. Analizde çekim modeli esas al?nm??t?r ve yapt?r?mlar?n ve entegrasyonun etkilerini tespit etmek amac?yla gölge de?i?kenler kullan?lm??t?r. Analiz sonucunda Avrasya Ekonomik Birli?i’nin kar??l?kl? ticaretinde çekim modelinin geçerli oldu?u ortaya ç?km??t?r. Regresyon tahmininde üç gölge de?i?ken kullan?lm??t?r. Ancak sadece ekonomik birli?in kar??l?kl? ticareti olumlu etkiledi?i tespit edilmi?tir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Avrasya Ekonomik Birli?i, Çekim modeli, D?? ticaret

The Impact of Sanctions and Economic Integration on the Trade between Eurasian Economic Union Members: The Gravity Model Test

Abstract

The customs union between the three countries, which was established in 2010, turned into an economic union in 2015 and the number of members increased to five. The main purpose of economic integration is to develop trade and economic relations between countries. However, after the joining of the Crimea to Russia in March 2014, the USA and the West have adopted economic sanctions against Russia and this still continues. This also affects trade between Russia and other countries. It is said that the trade relations of the union were negatively affected due to the contraction of the economy and the total foreign trade volume due to the sanctions, and the devaluation of the Russian ruble and later the currencies of other countries. On the other hand, as a result of the integration established at that time, it is expected that the countries' foreign trade with third countries narrowed and the trade between them may has been positively affected by their orientation to countries within the union. In this study, the panel data analysis and the annual data for the 2000-2019 period were used to test these hypotheses. The analysis is based on the gravity model and shadow variables were used to detect the effects of the sanctions and integration. It has been revealed that the gravity model is valid in the mutual trade of the Eurasian Economic Union. Three shadow variables were used in the regression estimation. However, it has been determined that only the economic union positively affected mutual trade.

Keywords: Eurasian Economic Union, Gravity model, Foreign trade

Asst. Prof. Dr. Junus Ganiev (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan)
0000-0001-8859-5464  junus.ganiev@manas.edu.kg

Assoc. Prof. Dr. ?aban Nazl?o?lu (Pamukkale University, Denizli, Türkiye)
0000-0002-3607-3434  snazlioglu@pau.edu.tr

Asst. Prof. Dr. Damira Baigonushova (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan)
0000-0002-9740-0021  damira.baigonushova@manas.edu.kg

Submitted on: 2021-10-18 Accepted on: 2022-07-08

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:2 Pages: 13-19

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.2.0109

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APA style citation: Ganiev, J. , Nazl?o?lu, ?. , & Baigonushova, D. (2022). Yapt?r?mlar?n ve ?ktisadi Entegrasyonun Avrasya Ekonomik Birli?i Üyeleri Aras?ndaki Ticarete Etkisi: Çekim Modeli Testi. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 1(2), 13-19.

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