Enflasyon ve Büyüme Arasındaki Doğrusal Olmayan İlişki: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği

Özet

Bu çalışmada enflasyon ve iktisadi büyüme arasındaki doğrusal olmayan ilişki seçilmiş geçiş ülkelerinin 1998-2019 yıllarına ait verilerini kullanarak incelenmiştir. Ampirik analizde panel eşik regresyon modeli uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları enflasyonun iktisadi büyüme üzerinde eşik etkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, nüfus artışı, işçi dövizleri ve yurt içi yatırımların iktisadi büyüme üzerinde istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı etkisinin bulunduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Bu çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, söz konusu ülkelerin politika yapıcıları için faydalı olabilir. Eşiğin üzerindeki enflasyon büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediğinden, söz konusu ülkelerdeki merkez bankaları, enflasyon oranını tahmini eşik değerine indirerek ekonomik büyümenin artmasına katkı sağlayabilirler.

Anahtar kelimeler: Enflasyon, Ekonomik büyüme, Panel eşik regresyon modeli

Non-Linear Relationship Between Inflation and Growth: The Case of Transition Economies

Abstract

This study examines the non-linear relationship between inflation and economic growth using a Panel Threshold Regression on a dataset over the period 1998-2019 for selected transition economies. The findings of the study show that there exists a threshold effect of inflation on economic growth. Furthermore, our findings provide evidence that the population growth, workers’ remittances, and domestic investments are statistically significant in explaining economic growth. Findings obtained from this study can be useful for policymakers of the countries under consideration. Since inflation above the threshold negatively affects growth, central banks in the countries considered may contribute to an increase in economic growth by reducing the inflation rate to the estimated threshold value.

Keywords: Infliation, Economic growth, Panel treshold regression model

Prof. Dr. Ebru Çağlayan Akay (Marmara University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-9998-5334  ecaglayan@marmara.edu.tr

Asst. Prof. Dr. Zamira Oskonbaeva (Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan)
0000-0002-3711-6918  zamira.oskonbaeva@manas.edu.kg

Submitted on: 2021-10-06 Accepted on: 2022-01-14

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:1 Pages: 25-33

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.1.0104

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APA style citation: Çağlayan Akay, E. , & Oskonbaeva, Z. (2022). Enflasyon ve Büyüme Arasındaki Doğrusal Olmayan İlişki: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneği. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 1(1), 25-33.

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