Türkiye Enflasyon Oranlar?n?n ?ktisadi Belirleyicileri: ARDL S?n?r Testi Yakla??m?

Özet

Son y?llarda Türkiye ekonomisinde, döviz kuru, kredi miktar?ndaki art??, para arz? ve GSY?H’daki art?? gibi bir dizi de?i?ken nedeniyle tüketici fiyatlar? temelli enflasyon oranlar?nda art??lar gözlenmektedir. Politika yap?c?lar?n?n, enflasyon oranlar?n? dü?ürebilmek için enflasyonun hangi de?i?kenlerden etkilendi?ini do?ru tespit etmeleri gerekir. Bu çal??mada, Türkiye ekonomisinde gözlemlenen enflasyon oranlar?n?n iktisadi belirleyicileri 2003-2021 dönemi için Gecikmesi Da??t?lm?? Otoregresif S?n?r Testi (ARDL) modeli kullan?larak tespit edilmi?tir. Enflasyon oranlar?n?n iktisadi belirleyenlerini tespit edebilmek için para arz?, dolar/TL döviz kuru, faiz oranlar?, tüketici kredileri ve GSY?H de?i?kenleri tercih edilmi?tir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, k?sa dönemde enflasyonun geçmi? y?llardaki de?erleri ve dolar/TL döviz kurunun; uzun dönemde ise reel parasal büyüklüklerin enflasyon oranlar? üzerinde etkisi oldu?u tespit edilmi?tir. K?sa ve uzun dönemde ise, faiz oranlar?yla enflasyon oranlar? aras?nda zay?f bir ili?ki bulunmu?tur.

Anahtar kelimeler: Enflasyon oran?, Türkiye ekonomisi, Gecikmesi da??t?lm?? otoregresif s?n?r test

Economic Determinants of Turkish Inflation Rates: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

Consumer price index-based inflation rates have increased in the recent years in Turkey due to increases in a number of variables, such as exchange rates, loans, money supply and GDP. In order to choose appropriate policies to reduce the inflation rates, policy makers should determine the economic determinants of inflation accurately. In this paper, the economic determinants of Turkish inflation rates are investigated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound test over the sample period of 2003-2021. In order to determine the economic determinants of inflation rates, money supply, dollar/TL exchange rates, interest rates, consumer loans and GDP are selected as explanatory variables. According to the results of this study, in the short-run the lagged values of inflation and dollar/TL exchange rate have an effect on inflation rates; and in the long-run the real money balances is the most effective variable. The relation between the real interest rate and inflation rates are weak both in the short- and in the long-run.

Keywords: Inflation rate, Turkish economy, Autoregressive distributed lag bound test

Dr. Bekir A??k (Istanbul Beykent University, Istanbul, Türkiye)
0000-0002-2221-016X  bekirasik@beykent.edu.tr

Submitted on: 2021-10-15 Accepted on: 2022-01-12

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:1 Pages: 16-24

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.1.0103

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APA style citation: A??k, B. (2022). Türkiye Enflasyon Oranlar?n?n ?ktisadi Belirleyicileri: ARDL S?n?r Testi Yakla??m?. Avrasya Ekonomileri Dergisi, 1(1), 16-24.

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