Journal of Eurasian Economies

Does Demographic Transition Reduce Poverty in Central Asia?

Abstract

Central Asian countries are experiencing a demographic transition due to the shrinking fertility and the mortality rates, and are in the stage of getting benefits from the economic tailwinds with an increased working-age population share. This potential is expected to convert the demographic transition into economic growth as well as poverty reduction. Although all countries' economy grows, poverty reduction is stagnated. The main question here is about the underlying cause of this stagnation in economic poverty reduction, is it due to an increase in the working-age population, or whether the region utilizes these economic benefits through accumulating human resources. In this paper, it was found out that one of the main reasons for continuing poverty is the lack of job creation. Moreover, due to the existing insecure jobs, the increasing economically active population of Central Asia is forced to seek jobs abroad. This paper analyzes the main channels that impact the demographic change in the Central Asian countries considering human capital, socio-economic situation, and poverty rate by using cross-section data for the period of 2000 – 2019 via the fixed effects method. According to the results of the model, the recommendation for reducing economic poverty is a well planned demographic policy that should focus on strengthening human resources, especially on education for developing new skills in an early stage which should boost economic growth.

Keywords: Demographic transition, Economic poverty, Fixed effects methods,

Orta Asya’da Demografik Geçiş Ekonomik Fakirliği Azaltıyor mu?

Özet

Orta Asya ülkeleri, gerek doğum oranlarının gerekse ölüm oranlarının azalması sonucunda demografik açıdan bir geçiş dönemi tecrübesi yaşamakta olup, nüfuslarının çalışma yaşı aralığındaki kısımlarının artması dolayısıyla birtakım ekonomik faydalar sağlama aşamasındadırlar. Bu potansiyelin, demografik geçiş durumunu, ekonomik büyümenin gerçekleşmesine ve aynı zamanda ekonomik fakirliğin azalmasına dönüştürmesi beklenmektedir. Ancak, bütün bu ülkelerin ekonomilerinin büyümesine rağmen, ekonomik fakirliğin azalması durgunluk göstermektedir. Buradaki esas soru, ekonomik fakirliğin azalmasındaki bu durgunluğun sebebinin, nüfusun çalışma yaşında olan kesiminin artması ile mi, yoksa bölgenin sağlanan bu ekonomik faydaları insan kaynakları yaratmak üzere kullanması ile mi ilgili olduğudur. Bu makalede fakirliğin devam etmesinin ana sebeplerinden birinin iş yaratma gücü eksikliği olduğu saptanmıştır. Ayrıca, varolan işlerin de güvenilir olmaması sonucu, artmakta olan ekonomik açıdan aktif olan nüfus, Orta Asya’dan başka ülkelerde iş aramak durumunda kalmaktadır. Bu makale, Orta Asya ülkelerinde tecrübe edilmekte olan demografik değişime yol açan önemli kanalları, beşeri sermaye, sosyo-ekonomik durum, fakirlik oranı çerçevesinde 2000-2019 dönemine ait yatay-kesit verilerle sabit etki metodu kullanarak analiz etmektedir. Makalenin sonuçlarına göre, ekonomik fakirliği azaltabilmek için tavsiye edilecek demografik ilke, insan kaynaklarını kuvvetlendirmek, özellikle ilk aşamalarda yeni beceriler kazandırmaya yönelik eğitime önem vermek suretiyle ekonomik büyümeyi daha da desteklemekmektir.

Anahtar kelimeler: Demografik geçiş, Ekonomik fakirlik, Sabit etki metodu,

Muyassar Kurbanova (Corvinus University, Budapest, Hungary)
0000-0002-5037-0021  muyassar2710@gmail.com

Submitted on: 2021-10-08 Accepted on: 2022-01-14

Year:2022 - Volume:1 Issue:1 Pages: 34-43

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36880/J01.1.0105

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APA style citation: Kurbanova, M. (2022). Does Demographic Transition Reduce Poverty in Central Asia?. Journal of Eurasian Economies, 1(1), 34-43.

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